eForesee Istanbul Conference

Towards a European Model of Agriculture in the EU25+

Background

A number of factors have come together in recent years to suggest that European agriculture will evolve in far-reaching ways over the next decade. Major drivers of change include:

The Acquis Communautaire: Broad consensus is developing that the existing acquis does not constitute a sustainable basis for the EU25+. The future member states have gone through a far-reaching transformation process while preparing for Accession. They can provide especially valuable insight as to how this could evolve in the future.

The Accession Process: The accession of 10 new member states means among other things that they must manage the transition in rural areas by developing policies adapted to the new situation. Policies to promote competitive agricultural production in a European single market, as well as policies to support the restructuring and diversification of rural economies.

CAP Reform: Changes to the system of policy making and to the linking of agricultural policy with policy in rural development based on a tactic of 'modulation' - the transfer of savings made by subsidy reform to systems supporting rural development based on the Rural Development Regulation. WTO recognition of the multi-functionality of agriculture, the fact that agricultural activity goes beyond the production of competitively priced produce in that it creates public goods of significant social value that are not governed by traditional market logic.

Structural Fund Reform: A review of structural fund management and administration to simplify procedures and provide greater flexibility in the deployment of funds at both national and regional level, with major changes to come into effect after 2006.

Although this will provide new opportunities for value creation in the EU25+, harnessing these opportunities will require:

• A renewal of awareness and debate among policy makers on policy options,
• New thinking about policy development processes,
• Greater involvement of stakeholders as ultimate agents of change,
• Shared visions of a European Model for Agriculture in the EU25+, and
• Shared visions of how RTD & Innovation policy in the ERA can contribute to this.

The need to link policy in agriculture with that for rural development, as well as with policy for industry, education, the environment and tourism, has been recognized for many years. In 1996, a meeting attended by Mr. Fischler - EU Commissioner for Agriculture, Fisheries and Rural Development, lead to the adoption of 'The Cork Declaration', the first major statement at European level advocating improved coherence and co-ordination between policy in agriculture, the rural environment, rural development and sustainable rural areas.

The recent focus at European level on innovation - the 2010 Lisbon goal suggests that these should also be linked coherently with regional policy, policy in RTD and Innovation as well as policy to promote entrepreneurship and new business development. Agriculture is a science-based knowledge industry and bioscience related disciplines have the potential to contribute to sustainability and rural development goals just as much as they can contribute to productivity or competitiveness in food production. The imminent reform of the CAP, WTO positioning on trade in agricultural produce, and the accession of 10 new members states has created a situation in which a reflection upon policy development processes at national, regional and European level would be timely and productive.

Foresight is a policy development tool that can help to inform and catalyse change by exploring visions for modern linked policy development processes in the new Europe in the wake of CAP reform. It extends and complements approaches such as 'open co-ordination' by bringing to bear upon the challenge of effective policy making, a variety of tools that support participation in strategic thinking by actively engaging stakeholders and other agents of change.